Por Jillian Slutzker
What’s causing people from the Northern Triangle of Central America to take the risky journey to the United States and elsewhere?
Based on extensive data mining and 2,400 in-person interviews, Creative’s newly released study, “Avançando: Por que os migrantes arriscam tudo,” provides nuanced insight into the localized factors that influence one’s decision to migrate. It focuses on the 60 municipalities across El Salvador, Honduras and Guatemala that account for more than half of the irregular migration from the region.
The study’s name, “Avançando,” inspired by a Spanish phrase that connotes a feeling of resilience and a desire to move forward in life, was a sentiment echoed by many of the 2,400 individuals interviewed as part of this research.
With this local-level data, development programming can more effectively address the specific determinants that shape a person’s decision to make the risky, even dangerous, journey north.
Get five quick facts from the study below! Para saber mais, visita https://www.saliendo-adelante.com/.
1. Who intends to migrate?
A nível nacional, Creative’s study revealed that 33 percent of Hondurans intend to migrate, while 24 percent of Salvadorans intend to, followed by 18 percent of Guatemalans. The majority of these migrants are coming from just 60 municipalities in the Northern Triangle.
2. Economics is the primary driver
Geral, economic concerns are by far the most significant driving factor for migrants from the Northern Triangle. The study showed that economic concerns—including unemployment, household earnings under $400 per month and being unable to make ends meet, and a pessimistic economic outlook—are the primary statistically significant determinants for 71 percentagem de guatemaltecos que pretendem migrar, 67 percent of Hondurans who intend to and 50 percent of Salvadorans who do.
Those whose households earn less than $400 a month and who cannot make ends meet are 1.25 times more likely to consider migrating. More than one-third of survey respondents reported household earnings under the $400 line and said they could not make ends meet.
3. Being victimized makes you 1.5 more likely to migrate
Regionalmente, ter sido vítima de um crime ou ter um membro da família ou alguém próximo a você que tenha sido um indivíduo 1.5 times more likely to consider migrating.
Nearly one-third of survey respondents who have considered migrating from Honduras have had a family member or close friend murdered. Youth tend to be affected even more by victimization in their decision to migrate. Em Salvador, 1 em 4 young women aged 18 para 29 who intends to migrate has seen a family member or close friend murdered. Em Honduras, 65 percent of young men who intend to migrate have been robbed on the street.
4. Mais do que 1/3 of youth in the Northern Triangle plan to migrate
Across the three countries, em média 36.7 percent of youth intends to migrate.
Na verdade, entrevistados 18 para 29 anos de idade têm duas vezes mais probabilidade de considerar a migração do que os adultos com idade 30 e mais velho. The data from Honduras is particularly stark: 46 percent of youth from the municipalities surveyed intend to migrate, comparado com 28 percent of older adults.
Youth are exposed to factors at different rates from adults, e em alguns casos, react differently to those factors. According to the survey, Honduran young women intend to migrate more than young men. This is not the case in the other countries where young men were found to have higher intentions to migrate.
5. Reuniting with relatives not a large pull
Laços transnacionais – definidos aqui como existência de família nos EUA, recebimento de remessas, e migração anterior para os EUA. – é um fator de atração na equação de migração, mas é muito menos impactante do que a economia e a vitimização. Apenas 3 por cento dos entrevistados citaram o reencontro com parentes como o principal motivo para quererem migrar.
No entanto, in the larger regional context, a culture of migration has been and continues to be solidified through the generations. Nearly two-thirds of all survey respondents have a relative living abroad, com 75 por cento desses parentes viveram nos EUA. para 10 anos ou mais.
Yet statistical analysis shows that simply having a family member in the U.S. is not a differentiating factor between those who intend to migrate and those who don’t, apesar do grande número de pessoas que relataram laços familiares.
To read more about the study, explore the data and hear migrants’ stories, visita: https://www.saliendo-adelante.com/